A Bull Market in Complacency, China Deflation, and a Second Look at the Jobs Report

I am not a buyer one bit over the “Goldilocks” narrative that followed the release of Friday’s data

After last week’s modest gain, it is now six rally weeks in a row for the S&P 500 — the longest winning streak since November 2019 and pulling further away from its 50-day trendline. It managed to hit a 2023 high Friday while the Nasdaq is right on the cusp. The S&P 500 is now back to being up more than +20% for the year (and just 4% shy of reclaiming the prior peak of nearly two years ago) and the internals have been improving of late and bolstering the bullish narrative. 

Advancers edged out decliners on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, while the number of issues at new 52-week highs has also been topping the lows on both exchanges — markedly so for the NYSE.