Memo From the Chief Economist

Memo From the Chief Economist

The Inflation Call

Everyone has inflation on the brain, but nobody believes this energy shock will trigger a recession.

David Rosenberg's avatar
David Rosenberg
May 05, 2026
∙ Paid

So, the long bond yield has broken above 5.0%, and the futures market is 60% of the way to pricing in a Fed rate hike by April of next year. Silly season is back. Everyone has inflation on the brain, but nobody believes this energy shock will trigger a recession.

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