Memo From the Chief Economist

Memo From the Chief Economist

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Memo From the Chief Economist
Memo From the Chief Economist
The Trump Trade Show: Destined to Be a Flop
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The Trump Trade Show: Destined to Be a Flop

David Rosenberg's avatar
David Rosenberg
Apr 07, 2025
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Memo From the Chief Economist
Memo From the Chief Economist
The Trump Trade Show: Destined to Be a Flop
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There is now certainty that this White House trade strategy is both nonsensical and unachievable.

When President Donald Trump states that the trade plan is “our declaration of economic independence,” what he is, in effect, saying is that he wants America to be “independent” - or “liberated” - from bilateral deficits with all countries running such gaps against the U.S.

As a result, just about any country in the world that runs trade surpluses with the United States just faced a brutal and unanticipated assault in terms of magnitude — 57 in total (with a range of 1% to 40% of penalties layered on top of the 10% baseline move.

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