Archive - Memo From the Chief Economist

You’re Fired! The REAL Reason Behind the Job Revisions and Why the BLS Commissioner Should NOT be Blamed

“For the FOURTH month in a row, jobs numbers have beat market expectations with nearly 150,000 good jobs created in June.

Aug 5 •

David Rosenberg

July 2025

This is Where the Narrative Gets Dangerous

Look, we have not seen an average tariff rate of 20%+ in over a century… having soared from 2.5%.

Jul 24 •

David Rosenberg

Tea Party — Where Art Thou?

The Big, Beautiful Bill will explode the deficit at the worst possible time — with a major demographic transition making the debt burden even higher.

Jul 4 •

David Rosenberg

June 2025

Dissecting the Bond Market

The focus of this piece is on the bond market since I’m getting more questions about that than anything else these days.

Jun 4 •

David Rosenberg

April 2025

The Trump Trade Show: Destined to Be a Flop

There is now certainty that this White House trade strategy is both nonsensical and unachievable.

Apr 7 •

David Rosenberg

February 2025

Beware of the Soon-to-Fade ‘Wealth Effect’

“I’m actually pretty negative for the first time in a while.

Feb 25 •

David Rosenberg

Make Volatility Great Again

Trump has kicked off a potential tariff war, but the only real certainty is more volatility.

Feb 3 •

David Rosenberg

January 2025

Back to the De-Risking File

If you recall, shortly after Donald Trump got elected, I published a piece on what heightened uncertainty means (or should mean) for risk premiums…

Jan 15 •

David Rosenberg

Still Expecting More than 100 Basis Points Out of the Fed This Year (And Market Implications)

Let’s talk bonds and what the real driver has been and will continue to be.

Jan 7 •

David Rosenberg

December 2024

The Bottom Line: We are in this strange backdrop where investors believe that there is no recession risk, no risk of earnings disappointments, no risk…

Dec 16, 2024 •

David Rosenberg

Lament of a Bear

“Exponentially rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.”

Dec 5, 2024 •

David Rosenberg

November 2024

It’s Complicated!

So De-risk, Move to Cash, and Don’t Chase Your Tail Risk!

Nov 18, 2024 •

David Rosenberg

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